Phase 1: Project Identification

Project Identification: refers to the decision to develop a project within the budget and programme of a project owner, including strategic decision-making, priority-setting, project screening, profiling and initial feasibility and needs analysis.

Risks identified

Project selection and budgeting driven by political influence

Project selection, budget and pipeline decisions are shaped by patronage or political influence rather than transparent project selection criteria, public need, and value-for-money (VfM).

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Bias toward large works/projects to maximise opportunities for illicit gains

Resources are steered toward large capital projects and major works that offer greater opportunities for rent‑seeking, rather than the most cost‑effective solutions, increasing the risk of so-called 'white elephants'.

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Strategic misrepresentation of cost estimates at identification stage

Cost estimates are strategically understated or overstated during project identification to secure approval, with expectations of recovering profits later through variations, claims, or renegotiations.

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Investment decisions driven by influential private actors and weak strategic alignment

Investment decisions reflect the interests of influential private actors and do not align with long‑term national, regional, or sector strategies.

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Conflicts-of-interest and revolving‑door influence in early decisions

Conflicts-of-interest, intermediaries, and revolving‑door movements enable undue influence over project prioritisation and early choices, including design-related choices and project location.

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